Sunday, June 04, 2006

The Story of the Boy Who Cried Peak Oil

They were 17 year’s old. A boy named Barry and a boy named Tommy. Barry a young boy who attended School Of The Future studied a course on peak theory from his professor Andy. Barry learned about how all the horrible things in life would happen once oil starts to run out. He was taught to predict what would happen to the earth and how he can learn to adapt and be prepared for the worse. He was taught to spread the word and test out different ways to manipulate people to believe in the peak oil theory. So one day Barry learned the usage of making people feel very scared. Barry then planned out his attack on Tommy. He planned to scare Tommy with all these bad things that would really happen to the earth if the peak oil was to happen. Barry planned to talk about how the American dream was all about money making and living luxurious. Barry then thought to focus on that because that was what Tommy would be scared of.
The next day, they went up to practice at their White Crane club house for lion dancing. They were supposed to wait for PBS to do a documentary on them. Nian met up with Barry and Tommy up at the club house. As they were waiting, they decided to gamble. They played 13 cards. As they played, Barry slowly brought up the economic topics. He said, “You know, we’re going to grow up one day. What do you think you want to be?” “Me? I want to be a business man. My dad was one, and I believe my whole family is destined to be one.” “Oh word? Well I think that I’m going to do something with environmental studies because of that peak oil thing. Once Barry said that, Tommy said what?! Environmental studies? What’s the use of that? And what the hell is peak oil theory? Inside Barry’s mind, he was grinning. His master plan was coming into effect. “Well peak oil theory states that the continuation of extraction of oil and demand of oil will one day conclude in a social collapse. Basically, one day we’re going to run out of oil, and we’re going to be screwed. Money won’t really matter anymore. America will not last anymore.” When Barry said that, Tommy retorted, “Yeah right! Who would ever forget about money? And plus, I don’t have to live in America afterwards. I can just move to Europe.” “Well you might have money, but one day the US dollar is going to fall after the peak. So your one dollar will not count as seven Hong Kong dollars anymore. It is probably more like 10 US dollar will equal 1 Hong Kong dollar or something.” Then Tommy exclaims, I’m a millionaire! Literally. I’ll still be good if the US dollar is going to be less valued. I’m rich bitch!” As Barry tried to explain him how money will not really count anymore, all Tommy did was no, I do not care! So that concludes the boy who cried Peak Oil.
I believe that this will happen to most people with money. They know they are secured right now. And if we go back to epistemology, people only believe in the logical things. Peak oil doesn’t really sound logical until every detail is explained like the way Andy explains. If we were to tell someone, the world is ending in 100 years, it won’t be as effective as telling them the reason, and going step by step and showing the chain reactions that may occur. I tried the method I call “Burning In Hell” method. I guess it doesn’t really work unless you have the time, and is dealing with people that aren’t wealthy. I guess un secured people are more prone to changes than rich people who usually stay rich for their whole life. But I think that since people that are not as wealthy always has a fluctuating way of life, weather it is a good way or a bad way, they are always adapting. So I believe that people that aren’t wealthy have a better chance of surviving than a wealthy person.
Also since semi-believe that poor people are more prone to believe in things. That is why people have religions. By believing that, even if it was a little, I believe that poor people will be more gullible or easily believe in things. I believe I am my family and my community is in the lower class rank, we are more prone to make changes. I remember when I was a little boy, and the Chinese newspaper called “Sing Tao” posted this article which said that a baby was born and cried out “Make green bean soup, and drink it tonight, or your fortune will not improve.” (translated from Chinese to English) My family and my whole apartment building (which is Chinese and from the lower class) made green bean soup. I just talked to Nian about it with his mom and he told me he also did the green bean soup thing. In the end, people found out it was just a rumor and a hoax.

My Opinion On The Seven Adaptive Skills Andy Came Up With

I think that the seven skills would help us out a lot. That is only if every single building, piece of toilet paper, tooth brush, cooking utensils, lighters, books on how to make fires, books on survival skills just randomly disappeared in one night. Even though if the peak oil was to be really bad and we really had no more oil, things that were already made will still be there. Knives will still be there. Guns will still be there. Books on how to make things will still be there. If you were serious about those adaptive skills, then I want to see you try it first. Growing a nut tree, planting potatoes. Those are things that a person with time can do. People from the lower class are usually busy working to make money. Even though I understand the money will not be as big of a factor in the future, it is a big factor now. In order to survive the future, we have to also survive the present.
Some people have the time to grow food, but my family no. My family consists of four people. Two that goes to work, and the other two also goes to work but goes to school also. So it is impossible to grow potatoes, a nut tree because of our schedule. A lot of families are just like mine too. I also live in an apartment building. I have no empty space where the sunlight can beam on. I have no container for a big nut tree. I live in the city also. Maybe adaptive skill number one works for people who doesn’t reside in the city, and has enough money so that one person can still grow things.
While preparing to live as one with the community, there should be a leader or a peacemaker of some sort. I agree that what use would it be if there were conflicts in the community and at the same time trying to find food to survive? Peacemakers and leadership skills are a good way to survive. It is a useful technique when there is or isn’t a disaster like peak oil. I think that this course would actually be beneficial in all cases. I cannot disagree with this adaptive skill. But I think that there are some people with natural leadership skills and natural peacemaker skills.
I think that learning to speak another language is not that great of an idea unless you are wealthy. What is the use of speaking other languages when you know you won’t be traveling very far when peak oil comes? And since are in New York City, a lot of us already speak another language. Learning another language would be a waste of time to me. I am pretty much sure that at least 75% of people in New York City has a relative or knows someone that knows how to speak their native language and English at the same time. This means that some how someway we can still find a way to communicate with each other.
Dealing with new rituals. I recall that rituals were just ways of controlling people. It is a hegemonic structure. I believe that we wont be as controlled as we were when peak oil didn’t happen yet. That means our rebellious sides will start to come out more and we will start doing things out of the ordinary. When we do things out of the ordinary like trying to survive, our instincts will always kick in. For me, if I know that the next day would be an important day, I would always seem to wake up five minutes before my alarm usually wakes up. If I was to live in the forest, I believe my instincts will let me know when to wake up. I believe that people will not have to start camping out in the forest right now just so they can deal with the life out in the forest when peak oil happens. I don’t believe that living in the forest will be one of the main alternative solutions to surviving. Though that might be a big source of resource, it would be nearly impossible for me to get there. I think that it is a little too bugged out to learn to make huts and things like that right now. There will be books still lying in the library when peak oil hits. Also there will still be apartment buildings. There will still be your bed, your couch after peak oil. They won’t disappear our of no where once peak oil hits. Also like I said a couple of paragraphs up, people don’t have time right now to practice all these skills. People have to survive the present in order to advance to the next stage.
I believe that eating out of a dumpster might be crucial in the future, but I don’t believe that we should start practicing now. Whoever made this decision up might not have thought of the bacteria and viruses in dirty food. Since we have the ability now to eat good food, why start to eat bad food right now to get used to it later? I’d rather contract a disease later, post-peak oil than contract a disease now for practicing and being a human lab rat to see which food would be consumable.
To learn how to make a fire, like I said, there will still be lighters and books that teach you how to make fires around. They just don’t disappear. Plus I am very sure that every little kid in United States know that you can make fire with a magnifying glass.
Tooth brushes won’t disappear neither. And plus you know that all you need are little bristles put together to make a toothbrush. All you need are a bunch of drying hay or something.

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

techno amps me up


Sunday, May 21, 2006

what do you think will be the grass rootresponses to peak oil in new york city my shizzle dizzles?

What Would Be Two Grass Root Responses To Peak Oil In New York City?
I’ve never really traveled around New York City that much to really know what the common response of the city would be. But from where I’ve been to, I believe the two main responses would be that everyone would use their whole life time savings and bring their family back to where they came from. And to those who are actually from America, they are screwed. But the places I’ve been to are usually from immigrant decent. And from the people I know from those places usually still have family members back in their own country with a house there. Especially the Chinese people that I know.
The reason I believe that people will start to leave is because when peak oil is fully in effect, America will be weak and when that happens people will take advantage of it. I’m sure people that are very active about peak oil will start to make big marches, protests against the government, and soon it’ll go public and one day everyone will understand peak oil. When they understand, they will know that America isn’t a good place to live in anymore. They will realize that America might soon go back to farming and a nationwide agricultural life style. America will be very corrupt and twisted. Then the people of New York City will all disperse and go back to their origins. Since a lot of New York City people have parents that were immigrants, they would probably go back to where they were.
Another response would be that the whole city would go into chaos and start disrupting the place. The whole city will turn into the slums. There will be mass looting, fighting, and throughout every community there will be an organized gang. The gang will mostly do the disrupting and looting and then they will start to create a new hegemonic system within the current ones. Since the city has had a big history with gangs, it will be the perfect chance for remaining organized gang members come back out from the shadows and once again rule their territories again. Many New Yorkers will either join them or be victims of them. Most New Yorkers will just have to deal with the gang banging and find ways to commute and survive. But I believe that everything in the city will revolve around gangs though. For instance, in Chinatown, I know that if organized gangs (Triads), were to emerge again, the different triads will regain their own territory. Their own territory includes every single shop on their blocks. So no matter what the people of Chinatown had to deal with gangsters everyday. When they buy food, when they go to work as a waiter the boss is going to be a gang leader.

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Cuban's "Special Period" mothasucka

I believe that most people in our culture will not change their ways and thoughts unless there is concrete evidence. When theories like peak oil come about, almost everyone discards it unless proven. Maybe that is why the peak oil theory isn’t popular. So how can we start to convince everyone? Well we can look at Cuba as an experiment. Like Heinberg said, Cuba is a perfect example of the post-peak oil era. Cuba which was also an oil based country like ours, suffered a very heavy blow from post-peak oil. The oil usage dropped dramatically and their lifestyle changed drastically. They suffered from famine, black outs, and shortage of money. They were so disadvantaged because the world bank didn’t even support them. Americans even opposed the Cubans by blocking their cargos of aid from the Russians. But in the end they traversed from an oil dependant country to a no-oil dependant country successfully.
I feel that we should all follow the ways of the Cubans. It is easy to say but hard to do. It is even harder because we are America. The land where TV, silicone titties, and fast cars are essential. We love the way we live. And if we were to change our American dream, then everyone would feel like a bunch of failures. But that is what we have to live through in order to survive and one day obtain our old lifestyle back.
I feel that in order to survive like the Cubans, we must be more adaptable. We should learn to be less materialistic and be willing to listen to peak oil and understand it. The clip that we seen should also be known by everyone. Cuba is a perfect example for post-peak oil. They should be evidence to everyone in the world that peak oil will happen and consequences are harsh. They sacrificed a lot to be back where they are. But if the steps are done right, we might just pull out of this. Cubans had it rough, compared to if we had a post-peak oil era because they didn’t have any help. America has allies and people that are willing to help. If we all have the right mindset we can survive the peak oil theory.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Week 2 second post

“Now comes what appears to be the most powerful threat to oil's supremacy in a century: growing fears that the black gold is running dry. For years a small group of geologists has been claiming that the world has started to grow short of oil, that alternatives cannot possibly replace it and that an imminent peak in production will lead to economic disaster. In recent months this view has gained wider acceptance on Wall Street and in the media. Recent books on oil have bewailed the threat. Every few weeks, it seems, “Out of Gas”, “The Empty Tank” and “The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel”, are joined by yet more gloomy titles. Oil companies, which once dismissed the depletion argument out of hand, are now part of the debate. Chevron's splashy advertisements strike an ominous tone: “It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll use the next trillion in 30.” Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, believes “the debate has changed in the last two years from 'Can we afford oil?' to 'Is the oil there?'”” – The Economists

The following links prove that the prices of oil will be rising as we start going downhill from the curve of peak oil. In a regular person’s point of view, I was pretty convinced that the prices of oil would rise as it gets scarce. Everything that has rarity and importance will always be valued. Either they try to ease the fall by making the gas prices go up, or they want to make extra money off of the gas that’s remaining.

Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.
They are united by one idea, that global oil production is about to peak, which in turn will signal the permanent end of cheap oil. And they warn that this is the foundation of the current rise in oil prices.
“Globally, the oil industry recovers only about one-third of the oil that is known to exist in any given reservoir. New technologies like 4-D seismic analysis and electromagnetic “direct detection” of hydrocarbons are lifting that “recovery rate”, and even a rise of a few percentage points would provide more oil to the market than another discovery on the scale of those in the Caspian or North Sea. Further, just because there are no more Ghawars does not mean an end to discovery altogether. Using ever fancier technologies, the oil business is drilling in deeper waters, more difficult terrain and even in the Arctic (which, as global warming melts the polar ice cap, will perversely become the next great prize in oil). Large parts of Siberia, Iraq and Saudi Arabia have not even been explored with modern kit.” – The Economists
This statement I was pretty convinced at first when I read it. It logically made sense to me. If technology is very advanced now, and that they can use all these new powerful technology, then they can get the oil pretty easily. But later on I researched and found that. 4-D seismic analysis is still under research and isn’t fully operable yet.
The Edinburgh Time-Lapse Project (ETLP) is a UK-based university research consortium specialising in the application and development of analysis tools for engineering-consistent quantitative interpretation of 4D seismic data. Understandably, the research programme has a strong emphasis on the integration of seismic and reservoir engineering. The consortium is now in its second phase of research which started in June 2003 and will last until June 2006.

Pessimists worry that Saudi Arabia's giant fields could decline rapidly before any new supply is brought online. In Jeremy Leggett's thoughtful, but gloomy, book, “The Empty Tank”, Mr Simmons laments that “the only alternative right now is to shrink our economies.” That poses a second big question: whenever the production peak comes, will it inevitably prompt a global economic crisis? The baleful thesis arises from concerns both that a cliff lies beyond any peak in production and that alternatives to oil will not be available. If the world oil supply peaked one day and then fell away sharply, prices would indeed rocket, shortages and panic buying would wreak havoc and a global recession would ensue. But there are good reasons to think that a global peak, whenever it comes, need not lead to a collapse in output. – The Economist

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

er.. Week 2

To see more sides of the story, I decided to first write about my first thoughts that come to my mind after just looking at the site. With out reading the essays, I would think that Exxon is more credible because it is such a big company. In order to have this type of essay posted up on their public site, they must first review it multiple times. Also, they’ve been in the oiling company for years now and they should know more than just some person that studies economy and relies on some scientists prediction. I believe that Exxon is more hands on about this topic than the Economist’s essays. Though Exxon relies on scientists too, I believe that they don’t have to go through as many “filters” as Economists.
On the other hand, Exxon would one day collapse if they run out of oil. So I don’t think that they would broadcast on the world wide internet that they’re company is one day going to collapse because of oil depletion.
After reading the Economist’s article, and skimming through Exxon’s important factors, I began to wonder. Why are the Economists publishing this article? What is it’s motive? Besides making money off of an interesting article, why did they choose to write against the popular idea of peak oil? Like Andy said in class, Exxon was helped by other big corporate people. Are the Economists puppets for a bigger corporation? If so why did they want to say that the oil isn’t going to run out? Is this a scheme to try to cover up an upcoming apocalypse? Or maybe they’re telling the truth.
After some research, I found out that the graphs that The Economists used were a very credible source. I found out that the source was a big and famous research facility. They are very active and they even do conferences with the congress. I feel that if any one is allowed to speak with the congress it must be of some importance. Also even if the congress wasn't reluctant to join this conference, they must acknowledge the severity of the problem and acknowledge that the CERA is a credible and reliable source of information.

Sunday, April 30, 2006

Response to Nians Peak Oil Post

Remember at Crystal's balcony? The view of the city? We talked about how the whole city would just shut down and watch all of our efforts go down the drain. Well i have to agree on the fact that the oil will one day be depleted and everyone will have to choose survival. But do you think that there will be still people that look for luxury? Because it seems to me that poeple in general always seems to make something good out of the bad. Like how Andy was talking about how people made teh revolutionist, Che Guerra or something, become a capital for sale? A symbol or revolution, now printed on a tee shirt just so that it can sell. I have a feeling that some people will want to survive and then as they survive, they will somehow create a new hegemonic structure and create luxury. I feel that not everyone will be equal even if we live like primitive humans.

Peak Oil

Society and the lifestyle as it is right now are at a threat of being changed because of the peak oil theory. The peak oil theory states that one day our society is going to excavate the most oil it has ever excavated in one year and when that happens it signals that about half the oil has already been excavated. From then on, there would be less oil being excavated each year. So for example, year one, I excavated one barrel of oil. In year two, I excavated three barrels, and then in year three, I excavated 20 barrels. And at year three, 20 barrels a year was my peak. In year four, I only excavated three barrels. As time goes on, the next years max oil being excavated would be less than three.
So what will happen after it peaks? Some say that when it peaks, the prices will of course be significantly higher than it was back then. That is something you already see happen with in the last five years. The gas price used to be $1.80 for a gallon of gas. Around three years later, it’s $3.80. A two dollar jump. After the peak is reached, most likely everyone will be aware of this theory and the problem with it. At this time the prices will skyrocket. It might even be worse than Europe.
Since America is so dependant on oil, what will happen to us? Every aspect of our lifestyle is dependant on oil. Every aspect of the good life that we studied depended or depends on oil. How will you get food in the city? You can’t possibly have a farm in the city, so you will need to transport it into the city. How do you transport it? You need a truck that uses oil. Besides food, the factories that make our clothes uses oil to function. To find a lover in this society, many people are affected by the materialistic things such as nice clothing, nice car, and a good look to find someone. Without oil, you won’t have deodorant to smell good, you wont have flashy clothes from factories, and you cant pay for gas for your car!
So when there’s no more food, how are city dwellers going to survive? I don’t think it will be possible to live in the city anymore. I think that we will all have to migrate to a new place where trees, plants, and game are abundant. Maybe upstate or very unpopulated areas. I think that when this oil resource runs out, we will ultimately go back to the simple way of living. And if we do survive this apocalyptic scene, and go on living for thousands of years, we will eventually go back to the way we are now. I see oil and society in a circle. It will always go back to how it starts and ends the way it always ends. When we do go back to the simple way of life, I’m talking about 1700’s or even 1000 or something.
But as the bell curve shows, there will be a time when there will be some oil left, it’s just that the max oil excavated will decline. During this time, I predict that there will be wars over resources. Though it may be happening right now in Iraq, I’m not saying that some one is doing something wrong but, something is going to happen like that. The bully of all countries will go to war with everyone over resources. There might be two ways it can end. US will nuke the whole world and be the last standing with all the resources of the world. Or the war will just be a stalemate and at the end the oil used during the war will soak up all the oil that was even left.
When this happens, the world’s society will all fall, and we’ll eventually die off from diseases, competition for food. Basically I think that Darwin’s Theory of natural selection will take place and sooner or later only the strongest humans and smartest humans will survive. But we might not all fall to a primitive state. There will still be guns left with bullets in them. There still will be some grenades here and there, but that will some day run out too. I predict that around 200 years after the collapse mini societies will rise again and then finally bring back empires once again.
How can we prepare for that right now? I’ve been reading survival skill books recently. If we really must resort to our primitive lifestyle, then I want to be physically by fit and be knowledgeable. I will be different from the previous primitive people. Also, I’ll be prepared to use my whole life’s savings on a plane ticket to a place like Honduras to hang out with Aziza and her family over there.

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